In today's volatile geopolitical landscape, the term “gray zone” has become a buzzword for modern, covert conflicts. However, its meaning may not be immediately clear to those in traditional security or business roles.
Coined around 2015 to describe warfare below the threshold of declared hostilities or overt conflict, it gained particular relevance during the Russia-Ukraine conflict of 2014. Whether referred to as “gray zone,” “hybrid warfare,” “irregular warfare,” or “strategic competition,” these operations have significant consequences for businesses. Many activities in gray zone warfare can appear to be solely criminal, terroristic, economic or diplomatic. However, unlike traditional crime or non-military coercion, gray zone tactics involve state-sponsored or state-supported activities aimed at achieving strategic objectives through non-attributable or deniable means. This can lead to prolonged disruptions, economic instability, and challenges in assessing and mitigating risks that standard security measures may not adequately address.
This blog will offer a brief description of gray zone tactics and examine three regions where these operations may increase: Europe, the Middle East, and the Western Pacific. It will also underscore why businesses should understand the potential impact of gray zone tactics to protect their people and operations, and provide recommendations for assessing risk and strengthening resilience.
The intent behind gray zone warfare is to allow a country to achieve strategic objectives without provoking a full-scale military response from its opponent. These tactics are designed to create ambiguity, complicate decision-making and exploit weaknesses in the opponent’s strategy. Gray zone warfare seeks to subvert international norms, particularly around a country’s sovereignty, and gain an advantage for the aggressor to gain more territory, diplomatic maneuver space or resources. Gray zone tactics include cyber attacks, disinformation campaigns, economic coercion and the use of smaller-scale military forces. In particular, military force is often deployed through the use of “proxy” forces such as separatists, terrorists or opposing political parties. These methods aim to destabilize and influence target states while maintaining a level of plausible deniability.
Europe: Russian Gray Zone Operations
Russian gray zone warfare is probably the best and most well-known example of these kinds of operations in the last 10 years. Russian gray zone operations against Ukraine from 2013 onward have included a complex blend of disinformation campaigns, cyberattacks and proxy military engagements aimed at destabilizing Ukrainian governance and territorial integrity, culminating in Russia’s move to outright invasion in 2022. The long duration of this gray zone campaign sought to achieve Russia’s aim of subsuming Ukrainian territory without resorting to overt war. But Russia’s gray zone operations have not been only against its immediate neighbors.
Russia has also engaged in cyber espionage, targeting critical infrastructure and political institutions to gather intelligence and disrupt operations in the U.S. and Europe, as seen in the 2016 U.S. election interference and the 2017 NotPetya cyber attack. Additionally, Russia has utilized disinformation campaigns to attempt to influence public opinion and sow discord within target countries, leveraging social media platforms to spread fake news and propaganda. Economic coercion has also been a key tool, with Russia using its energy resources to exert political pressure on European countries dependent on Russian gas. Furthermore, the use of proxy forces and paramilitary groups in conflicts such as those in Ukraine and Syria allows Russia to engage in military operations while maintaining plausible deniability. While there is an argument that these Russian tactics have not been wholly effective, it is highly likely that Russia will continue to use these means in the future.
Middle East: Iranian “Hybrid Warfare” Through Proxies
Iran’s gray zone operations are characterized by the use of “proxy” forces to carry out operations that would be more escalatory if Iran conducted them outright. The primary goal of Iranian proxies in the Middle East is to advance Iran's strategic interests by extending its influence and countering the influence of rival powers in the region. Proxy forces allow a degree of plausible deniability. By establishing a presence through proxies in key locations, Iran can enhance its strategic depth and create buffer zones against potential threats.
Groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and various militias in Iraq are examples of Iranian proxies. These groups conduct cyber attacks, sabotage and asymmetric warfare, with both conventional and unconventional means. There is a wide divergence of opinion about the efficacy of Iranian gray zone tactics. Indeed, the Iranians have not been totally effective in deterring their two main opponents, Israel and the United States, from taking action. However, the low cost and potential for high payoff of these tactics make it highly likely that Iran will continue to pursue less escalatory gray zone operations going forward.
Western Pacific: Chinese “Military-Civil Fusion” and Whole of Government Coercion
Recently, our blog discussed the potential for the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to take military action against Taiwan by 2027. We discussed that a variety of factors drive us to the conclusion that China will likely use gray zone tactics rather than overt military force to subvert and take control of Taiwan. China uses many forms of gray zone coercion in the Western Pacific. PRC gray zone operations are characterized by the use of many elements of national power supported by the military. At a broad, national level, the PRC policy of “military-civil fusion” integrates civilian and military resources to enhance gray zone operations. This approach blurs the lines between civilian and military activities, complicating threat analysis and incident response.
China's gray zone operations in the military sphere often involve the use of the maritime militia and Coast Guard to assert territorial claims in the South China Sea without escalating to open conflict. Most recently, this tactic has been seen against the Philippines around the Second Thomas Shoal. Additionally, frequent military exercises and the strategic placement of military assets in disputed areas serve to intimidate neighboring countries and reinforce China's regional dominance while maintaining a posture of plausible deniability.
China's gray zone operations in the information domain include cyber espionage and disinformation campaigns aimed at destabilizing rivals and expanding its influence. For example, the APT10 group, linked to the Chinese government, conducted extensive cyber espionage operations targeting intellectual property and sensitive information from companies worldwide, while the spread of disinformation through social media platforms has been used to shape narratives and undermine trust in democratic institutions in countries like Taiwan and the United States. Chinese economic coercion is exemplified by the significant loans and investments made in countries like Tonga, where China holds a substantial portion of the nation's debt, reportedly around $108 million, giving Beijing considerable leverage over the Tongan government. Additionally, in the Solomon Islands, China has used diplomatic and economic pressure to sway the government’s decision to switch diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China in 2019, further consolidating its influence in the region.
Why Does It Matter?
At first examination, risks from gray zone activities may not seem different than other risks in the environment. Gray zone warfare and organized crime both exploit ambiguity and legal gaps to achieve their objectives while avoiding direct confrontation or detection. However, gray zone warfare involves state or state-sponsored actors using a blend of military, economic, informational and cyber tactics to achieve strategic national interests, often with geopolitical implications, while crime typically involves non-state actors pursuing financial gain through illegal activities. Other business risks, such as cyber threats, market volatility and natural disasters do not involve the strategic use of ambiguity and deniability seen in gray zone warfare. State-level resources behind gray zone warfare can lead to prolonged and significant disruptions.
The biggest risk from gray zone warfare different from crime or other threats is that it creates the risk of escalation to outright state on state conflict or war. Uncertain gray zone actor operations upset confidence and make it difficult for businesses to gauge actions and reactions by the political actors in this type of environment. This uncertainty can result in delayed decisions on planning, resourcing and execution of business operations. Particularly, gray zone warfare threatens infrastructure and people. The gray zone aggressor will target vulnerable populations and facilities in order to inflict pain on their adversary, hoping to turn unrest into political action towards their desired objective.
What Can Businesses Do?
Businesses with potential to fall prey to gray zone warfare due to their geographic location or business model need to conduct thorough risk assessments using reliable, analyst-vetted data as the foundation. Risk categories such as financial, operational infrastructure and people need to be considered; this information can inform critical decisions related to regulatory compliance, specific security standards across assets and employees, and optimal resource allocation to limit and mitigate threats. By monitoring geopolitical news in regions likely to experience gray zone operations, security professionals can remain informed and update risk estimates, as well as ensure a more accurate analysis of current preparedness. Contingency plans for business continuity in the event of an incident can be developed through scenario planning and tabletop exercises.
The mission can feel daunting and the path forward unclear. If you’d like to continue this discussion, provide feedback or are looking for assistance, OnSolve is here to help.
