As the year changed from 2023 to 2024, the risk intelligence landscape became dotted with a vast array of forecasts, nearly all of which highlighted the global election wave as a likely source of risk during the year. Now that we’re just past the midpoint of 2024 (and after some surprising results and events), let’s take stock of what this year’s global election cycle might tell us about risk patterns.
In an era where digital connectivity intersects with democratic processes, ensuring the integrity and security of elections has taken on many new dimensions. Every nation has unique geopolitical landscapes and socio-economic challenges, and those holding elections face significant hurdles in safeguarding their electoral processes against threats ranging from cyber vulnerabilities to physical violence.
For security managers, risk professionals and business leaders, the 2024 elections in Mexico and India offer compelling case studies in election security dynamics. This blog examines the complexities faced by these nations, examining how security professionals can apply lessons learned from Mexico and India’s 2024 elections to enhance resilience and mitigate risks in an increasingly interconnected world.
Global Election Supercycle
2024 will see at least 70 general, parliamentary and presidential elections around the globe. There are an estimated 1.2 billion registered voters worldwide, and around 59% have already cast ballots in 2024. High-visibility elections have taken place in Taiwan, Russia, England and the European Union. Political drama emerged in the second round of French elections, and we’ve seen candidate shake-ups for the U.S. presidential election in November.
Two highly watched elections are notable for their contrasts: Mexico and India. Mexico is about 40 percent smaller in land size than India, but with a population approximately 10 times smaller than India’s 1.4 billion people. Comparisons of infrastructure are relatively similar; however, economically Mexico generally scores better than India. Both countries face significant security issues: Mexico grapples with massive internal security problems from drug cartels, and India must contend with external threats from China and Pakistan, as well as several insurgent groups related to ethnic and political parties.
Mexico – Escalating Political or Criminal Violence: A Distinction Without a Difference?
Mexico conducted general and presidential elections on June 2, 2024, with 99 million registered voters. Although the sheer numbers in India’s election dwarf Mexico’s, the general election in Mexico included more candidates – 20,000 at the local, state and federal level. The primary threat in the Mexican elections came from physical violence against candidates, voters and election sites. Levels of violence surpassed Mexico’s previous general election in 2018, but the 2024 totals encompass both election-related and general types of violence. A record number of political candidates were assassinated during the run-up to the 2024 election, and an estimated 30 percent of the Mexican population experienced some form of violent intimidation during the campaign and election season. The Sinaloa Cartel and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), the two most powerful drug cartels, are likely to have been responsible for much of this violence. However, simultaneous with politically themed violence, continuing criminal violence and the potential for insurgent violence also likely affected the population during the election period. Multiple violent incidents in Chiapas, Guerrero and Michoacán reflect the blurred line between criminal and political intent.
The lack of effective security and governance throughout Mexico has likely had a deterrent effect on Mexican voter participation. In 2018, then-Candidate Obrador ran on a platform of “Hugs not Bullets,” with the goal of reducing drug violence. However, as President, he reversed course on this policy and has since expanded the use of the military to police the country and established the National Guard, a federal paramilitary gendarme. Corruption in the military and police appears to have increased, with local commanders and units making deals with local cartels. Federal agents in Mexico have clearly had problems protecting candidates, with around 50 candidates and party officials being assassinated during the campaign season and election.
While violence and insecurity in Mexico did affect the elections, some observers believe the elections were legitimate and fair, with no indications of actual election or vote tampering. They note that the violence was generally perpetrated by organized crime against candidates—not by political parties against one another. This distinction may be one without a material difference to the population of Mexico. Despite the violence, some believe that general voter apathy led to low turnout and a victory for the incumbent party. Regardless of the efficacy of the elections or the reasons behind violence, businesses operating in conditions like those in Mexico must strongly consider how an election period will cause increased disruptions and violence as various actors attempt to influence the environment.
India – Massive Scale and Logistic Challenges, Yet Security Remains Stable
India’s elections lasted almost six weeks, with a mind boggling 970 million registered voters. India’s elections were for the Lok Sabha, or lower house of parliament, for all 543 seats. Due to the large numbers of candidates and voters over such a vast area, the elections were held from April to June over six weeks. The massive scale of this election led the Indian government to enact enhanced security deployments and measures to counter misinformation, but challenges remained due to the size and diversity of the electorate. India deployed more than 15 million security personnel and 68,000 election monitoring teams across the country to secure the elections. Election security is primarily the responsibility of the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF) of the Ministry of Home Affairs in India. It is notable that this entity is a very large and centralized internal security body and is different from local police forces that can vary in composition from city to city and county to county in other countries.
It is estimated that more than 60% of registered voters took part in the Lok Sabha elections. Unlike Mexico, India did not experience large-scale violence against political candidates and voters. However, there were reports of violence throughout the six-week process. Disorganized violence and voting machine vandalism happened randomly, but on a relatively small scale given the numbers involved. The Indian government had to contend with allegations of corruption, voter machine security issues and mis- and disinformation online. Multiple opposition party-elected officials were arrested for alleged corruption and all parties used AI-generated deepfakes and memes to further their election goals. Regardless of these incidents, Indian authorities completed the elections with relatively little disruption, especially considering the scale of the undertaking.
What Can We Learn From These Cases?
Secure and fair elections contribute to political stability, which in turn fosters economic stability. Election-related instability or perceived corruption can deter investment, negatively impacting economic growth and business opportunities. Election-related violence, cyber-attacks or civil unrest can disrupt business operations. Organizations need to ensure their operations are resilient to such disruptions. As always, proper preparation for an exceptional event like national elections starts with proper risk assessment and planning:
Election Risk Assessment and Planning Recommendations:
- Conduct comprehensive risk assessments to identify potential threats and vulnerabilities, making note of where facilities and personnel overlap with election sites or candidate events.
- Analyze the timeline of the campaign season and election events. As noted with India and Mexico, different countries and elections can have widely variable timelines based on scale.
- Establish redundant communication protocols for alerting employees and stakeholders about potential risks. A mass notification system that pushes alerts based on trusted source reporting is key to maintaining business continuity and strengthening resilience during an election cycle.
Furthermore, businesses can take several security measures to protect physical and non-physical interests during elections, particularly in regions prone to political violence. We can categorize those into three main areas: physical security, cybersecurity and operational resilience.
1. Physical Security
Security Considerations:
- Increase security personnel, surveillance systems and additional protective measures at facilities, especially those in high-risk areas.
- Coordinate with local law enforcement and security agencies to enhance protection and receive timely updates on potential threats.
Employee Safety:
- Provide training for employees on how to respond to incidents of violence, including evacuation procedures and personal safety measures.
- Offer flexible working arrangements, such as remote work options, to minimize employees' exposure to risk during times of increased threats.
- Ensure that employees have access to emergency contacts and support services.
2. Cybersecurity
Enhanced Cybersecurity Procedures:
- Strengthen cybersecurity protocols to protect against increased risks during election periods.
- Maintain best practices of cybersecurity: Use multi-factor authentication, perform regular software updates, and leverage intrusion detection systems to safeguard digital assets.
- Hold cybersecurity training for employees ahead of election season.
Data Protection:
- Ensure that sensitive business data, including customer information, is encrypted and backed up securely.
- Monitor networks for unusual activity and respond promptly to potential breaches.
Collaboration and Information Sharing:
- Participate in industry information-sharing groups to stay informed about emerging cyber threats.
- Collaborate with government agencies and cybersecurity organizations to enhance overall resilience against cyber-attacks.
3. Operational Resilience
Business Continuity Planning:
- Develop and test business continuity plans to ensure that operations can continue or quickly resume after disruptions.
- Identify critical business functions and resources required to maintain them during periods of instability.
- Establish contingency plans for supply chain disruptions, including alternative suppliers and logistics arrangements.
Stakeholder Communication:
- Maintain open lines of communication with customers, suppliers and partners to manage expectations and provide updates on potential disruptions during elections.
- Use multiple communication channels to ensure that information reaches all relevant stakeholders promptly.
Reputation Management:
- Monitor social media and other public platforms for misinformation that could affect the business's reputation.
- Have a crisis communication plan in place to address any negative publicity quickly and effectively.
By implementing security measures like these in advance of an election cycle, businesses can strengthen their resilience against the risks associated with political violence, ensure the continuity of their operations and improve their ability to keep people safe. Collaboration with local authorities, cybersecurity organizations and industry peers is essential to effectively manage and mitigate election risks.
The mission can feel daunting and the path forward unclear. If you’d like to continue this discussion, provide feedback or are looking for assistance, OnSolve is here to help.
